Coritiba vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Coritiba v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Coritiba
BR1
1-1
HT 1-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
3-1
HT 1-0
Coritiba
BR1
1-1
HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
BR1
1-1
HT 0-0
Coritiba
BR1
1-1
HT 1-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
Coritiba 0-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics
Sao Paulo edged past Coritiba 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Sao Paulo made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Coritiba had 42% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 58%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 0.90 to 1.46.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Coritiba and 1.50 for Sao Paulo.
What was the final score of Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Coritiba 0-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 35%, draw 25%, Sao Paulo 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.