Gremio 2-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Feb 2026

📅26/02/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
43%
+6.8pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
25%
Away Win
29%
-3.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -25%
1.58/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.26
+30% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.0 Crosses 18.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.21 xG 1.81
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
280 Passes 424
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2025 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-3 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
30.03.2025 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.10.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 2-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
01.09.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-3 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
26.11.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
23.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.93 xG 0.34
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
426 Passes 208
89% Pass Accuracy 73%
10 Box Touches 5
27 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio squeezed past Atletico Mineiro 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 63% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 37%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 0.93 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gremio and 1.67 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro?

Gremio 2-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Gremio 50%, draw 25%, Atletico Mineiro 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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