Gremio 2-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Mar 2025

Gremio
2-1 HT 2-0
Atletico Mineiro
📅30/03/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
16%
5.06
6+ Goals
7%
29.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.48 — our 37% vs market 34.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.9
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
11%
13.75
X/1
12%
5.39
X/2
13%
5.81
X/X
13%
3.81
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
12%
4.37
2/X
5%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.2pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.9pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.3pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gremio v Atletico Mineiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -15%
1.14/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.22
-15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
14.9 Crosses 18.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.51 xG 1.74
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
308 Passes 414
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.10.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 2-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
01.09.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-3 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
26.11.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
23.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.12.2021 Gremio Gremio 4-3 HT 3-2 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
04.11.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1

Gremio 2-1 Atletico Mineiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.89 xG 2.84
32% Ball Possession 68%
12 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 11
198 Passes 475
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio nicked a narrow win over Atletico Mineiro 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Gremio found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 32% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 68%, shots finished 12-22, expected goals 0.89 to 2.84 — on chances, Atletico Mineiro could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gremio and 2.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro?

Gremio 2-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gremio 39%, draw 29%, Atletico Mineiro 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
30 Mar 2025
00:30 Fortaleza vs Fluminense Analysis →
00:30 Juventude vs Vitoria Analysis →
00:30 Cruzeiro vs Mirassol FC Analysis →
00:30 Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife Analysis →
03:00 Flamengo vs Internacional Analysis →
22:00 Palmeiras vs Botafogo Analysis →