Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Mineiro v Gremio — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Gremio
BR1
1-0
HT 1-0
Atletico Mineiro
BR1
4-3
HT 3-2
Atletico Mineiro
BR1
Atletico Mineiro 1-3 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics
Gremio beat Atletico Mineiro 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
This one beat our numbers. Atletico Mineiro carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 63% of the ball to Gremio's 37%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.23 to 1.04.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.67 for Gremio.
What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio?
Atletico Mineiro 1-3 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 56%, draw 23%, Gremio 21%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.