Sport Recife 2-2 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2.14
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
15%
5.31
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.97
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.7
X/1
19%
4.33
X/2
11%
6.87
X/X
16%
3.67
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
12%
5.98
2/X
7%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.8pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.1pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.15/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.20
-43% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
345 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
28.0 Crosses 16.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.72 xG 1.53
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
273 Passes 456
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
02.06.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-3 HT 1-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BRK
18.05.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-2 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
28.11.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
23.08.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
06.12.2020 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
2-2
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.72 xG 1.61
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 10
166 Passes 420
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife and Sao Paulo couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sport Recife at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 34% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 66%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.72 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sport Recife and 1.17 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo?

Sport Recife 2-2 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 42%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 29%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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