Corinthians 1-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.9pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.0pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-0.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.5pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.28/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.47
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 82%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
20.2 Crosses 18.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bahia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.05 xG 1.39
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
446 Passes 362
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
31.03.2025 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
04.12.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 3-0 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
21.07.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
25.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-5 HT 0-3 Bahia Bahia BR1
23.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
06.10.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
1-2
AWAY Bahia
2.60 xG 1.06
66% Ball Possession 34%
24 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
428 Passes 198
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 8
43 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia squeezed past Corinthians 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Bahia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 66% of the ball to Bahia's 34%, shots finished 24-7, expected goals 2.60 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Corinthians.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Corinthians and 1.17 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Bahia?

Corinthians 1-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 40%, draw 28%, Bahia 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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