Vitoria 2-2 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
20%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
18.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 32% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.45
X/1
20%
4.07
X/2
6%
9.37
X/X
11%
4.5
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
8%
7.98
2/X
7%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
20%
Away Win
20%
-0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 23%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +17%
1.11/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.27
-13% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
17.8 Crosses 17.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Juventude
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.75 xG 0.76
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
329 Passes 363
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
21.09.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
12.06.2024 Juventude Juventude 1-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
30.10.2023 Vitoria Vitoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
02.07.2023 Juventude Juventude 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
16.12.2020 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
2-2
AWAY Juventude
2.39 xG 1.87
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
322 Passes 304
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria and Juventude shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Vitoria at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 51% of the ball to Juventude's 49%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.39 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vitoria and 0.67 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Juventude?

Vitoria 2-2 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 55%, draw 25%, Juventude 20%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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