Palmeiras vs Fluminense Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Palmeiras v Fluminense — Team-Based Signals
Palmeiras vs Fluminense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Fluminense
BR1
2-1
HT 1-0
Palmeiras
BR1
Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense — Actual Match Statistics
Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Fluminense 2-1.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Palmeiras had 35% of the ball to Fluminense's 65%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.59 to 1.23.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Palmeiras and 0.83 for Fluminense.
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 54%, draw 27%, Fluminense 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.