Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 Jul 2025

📅24/07/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.41
Over 2.5
35%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.9pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
67%
-2.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
33%
+2.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.5pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.19/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.25
-15% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
322 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 81%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
19.3 Crosses 20.1
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.12 xG 1.04
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
383 Passes 297
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
25.07.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
03.12.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
06.08.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.08.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.05.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-2
AWAY Palmeiras
1.78 xG 1.62
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
370 Passes 334
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
36 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Fluminense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Palmeiras made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fluminense had 54% of the ball to Palmeiras's 46%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.78 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fluminense and 0.67 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Palmeiras?

Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 38%, draw 31%, Palmeiras 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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