Palmeiras 0-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 8 Dec 2024

Palmeiras
0-1 HT 0-1
Fluminense
📅08/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Palmeiras vs Fluminense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.67
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.36
6+ Goals
11%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 25% vs market 22.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.87
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.3
X/1
26%
3.67
X/2
7%
12.65
X/X
12%
5.78
2/1
8%
23.4
2/2
9%
10.3
2/X
6%
18.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
63%
-8.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palmeiras v Fluminense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.05/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.48
+10% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
25.9 Crosses 14.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Palmeiras vs Fluminense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fluminense
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 1.11
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
307 Passes 412
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.07.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
03.12.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
06.08.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.08.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.05.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
15.11.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1

Palmeiras 0-1 Fluminense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
0-1
AWAY Fluminense
0.44 xG 0.91
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 2
317 Passes 221
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
16 Box Touches 8
39 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense nicked a narrow win over Palmeiras 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 58% of the ball to Fluminense's 42%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.44 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Palmeiras and 1.17 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Fluminense?

Palmeiras 0-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 54%, draw 24%, Fluminense 21%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Palmeiras) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ BTTS No
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