Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
5.31
6+ Goals
8%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.91
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
20%
4.27
X/2
8%
7.38
X/X
15%
3.74
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
8%
6.28
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.2pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.6pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.32/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.44
+6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 81%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
21.3 Crosses 17.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.45 xG 1.25
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
437 Passes 231
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.11.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
02.09.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
24.05.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense LKU
30.04.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
19.04.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro LKU
08.08.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-3 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-0
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.36 xG 0.35
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
384 Passes 191
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro squeezed past Atletico Paranaense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 62% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 38%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.36 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.50 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense?

Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 48%, draw 28%, Atletico Paranaense 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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