Botafogo vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Botafogo v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals
Botafogo vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Botafogo
BR1
2-1
HT 1-1
Sao Paulo
BR1
0-1
HT 0-0
Botafogo
BR1
Botafogo 2-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics
Botafogo edged past Sao Paulo 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Botafogo had 46% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 54%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.88 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Botafogo's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Botafogo and 0.67 for Sao Paulo.
What was the final score of Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?
Botafogo 2-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 53%, draw 24%, Sao Paulo 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.