Sao Paulo 1-1 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.67
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
25%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.44
Over 2.5
38%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.0
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
17%
6.63
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.47
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
14.9
X/1
16%
5.41
X/2
13%
5.07
X/X
11%
3.24
2/1
12%
34.5
2/2
6%
4.08
2/X
9%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
34%
+9.5pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.3pp
25%
Away Win
34%
-9.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
66%
-3.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
34%
+3.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.8pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 38%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
0.98/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/0.53
+15% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
14.3 Crosses 12.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Botafogo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.09 xG 1.30
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
450 Passes 249
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.09.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo LKU
25.07.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 1-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
19.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.04.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
09.10.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.06.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-1
AWAY Botafogo
2.09 xG 0.91
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
334 Passes 208
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 8
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo and Botafogo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 59% of the ball to Botafogo's 41%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.09 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.00 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Botafogo?

Sao Paulo 1-1 Botafogo in the Copa Libertadores on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 43%, draw 31%, Botafogo 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sao Paulo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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