Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.87
6+ Goals
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.24
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.7
X/1
12%
3.63
X/2
10%
9.78
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
13%
8.79
2/X
8%
17.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+9.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 21%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +15%
1.40/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.30
-30% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +43%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
385 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.1 Crosses 12.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fluminense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.11 xG 0.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
342 Passes 378
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.09.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro LKU
25.08.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.05.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
29.10.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
22.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
01.10.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2-0
AWAY Fluminense
3.70 xG 0.15
66% Ball Possession 34%
25 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 1
438 Passes 186
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 7
34 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro got the better of Fluminense 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 66% of the ball to Fluminense's 34%, shots finished 25-3, expected goals 3.70 to 0.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.00 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense?

Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Fluminense in the Copa Libertadores on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 45%, draw 27%, Fluminense 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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LKU More Copa Libertadores
26 Sep 2024
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