Brisbane Roar (K) 0-4 Melbourne City (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 26 Mar 2025

Brisbane Roar (K)
0-4 HT 0-1
Melbourne City (K)
📅26/03/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
43%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.23
Over 2.5
45%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.49
No
54%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+7.0pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.9pp
43%
Away Win
51%
-7.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
41%
+13.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
59%
-13.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
63%
-16.8pp
54%
BTTS No
37%
+16.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar (K) v Melbourne City (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar (K) EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City (K) EU Bookmakers 56%
+46% / +46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.56/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.68
+2% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +58%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
272 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
19.6 Crosses 10.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4

Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar (K)
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.27 xG 1.82
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
282 Passes 348
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.01.2025 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) AVUSTW
02.03.2024 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 2-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
11.01.2019 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) AVUSTW
11.02.2018 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 0-2 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
21.01.2018 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) AVUSTW
17.12.2017 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 2-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW

Brisbane Roar (K) 0-4 Melbourne City (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar (K)
0-4
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
0.30 xG 2.81
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 13
4 Corners 3
245 Passes 352
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
6 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne City (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City (K) ran out comfortable winners over Brisbane Roar (K) 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne City (K) as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brisbane Roar (K) had 45% of the ball to Melbourne City (K)'s 55%, shots finished 11-22, expected goals 0.30 to 2.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar (K) had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Brisbane Roar (K) and 0.67 for Melbourne City (K).

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Brisbane Roar (K) 0-4 Melbourne City (K) in the Australia - W-League on 26/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar (K) 33%, draw 23%, Melbourne City (K) 43%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City (K)), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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