Once Caldas 0-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.68
Over 2.5
50%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 25%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/2.08
-39% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.52 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 2
257 Passes 355
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
10.04.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOLK
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza CEIF nicked a narrow win over Once Caldas 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Once Caldas at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fortaleza CEIF led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Once Caldas and 2.00 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Once Caldas 0-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Cup on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 44%, draw 26%, Fortaleza CEIF 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Once Caldas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ BTTS No
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