Fortaleza CEIF 2-0 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
35%
3.18
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.56
Over 2.5
34%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-9.6pp
36%
Draw
28%
+7.3pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
60%
+5.9pp
34%
Over 2.5
40%
-5.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.4pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.38/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.01
+10% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
15.5 Crosses 13.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Once Caldas
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
10.04.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
2-0
AWAY Once Caldas
1.42 xG 0.52
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
355 Passes 257
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza CEIF beat Once Caldas 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 36% / 27%) promised a tight game; Fortaleza CEIF found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fortaleza CEIF had 55% of the ball to Once Caldas's 45%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.42 to 0.52.

What was the final score of Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas?

Fortaleza CEIF 2-0 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza CEIF win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza CEIF 38%, draw 36%, Once Caldas 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza CEIF), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza CEIF) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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