Be1 NFA 1-0 BFA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 26 Apr 2024

Be1 NFA
1-0 HT 1-0
BFA
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-9.3pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.0pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Be1 NFA EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY BFA EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
1.63/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.36
-8% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Be1 NFA
3W-1D-0L
AWAY BFA
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.09.2023 BFA BFA 0-1 HT 0-1 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA LIT1
20.04.2023 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA 2-1 HT 1-0 BFA BFA LIT1
03.09.2022 BFA BFA 1-1 HT 0-0 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA LIT1
01.05.2022 Be1 NFA Be1 NFA 3-2 HT 1-1 BFA BFA LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Be1 NFA
1-0
AWAY BFA
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Be1 NFA vs BFA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Be1 NFA squeezed past BFA 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Be1 NFA as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Be1 NFA had 55% of the ball to BFA's 45%, shots finished 13-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Be1 NFA had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Be1 NFA and 1.00 for BFA.

What was the final score of Be1 NFA vs BFA?

Be1 NFA 1-0 BFA in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Be1 NFA vs BFA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Be1 NFA win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Be1 NFA 52%, draw 25%, BFA 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Be1 NFA), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Be1 NFA) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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