Neptüna Klaipeda 1-0 Garliava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.7pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.0pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neptüna Klaipeda EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Garliava EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.87/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.82
+12% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neptüna Klaipeda
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Garliava
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 Garliava Garliava 0-1 HT 0-1 Neptüna Klaipeda Neptüna Klaipeda LIT1
07.04.2023 Neptüna Klaipeda Neptüna Klaipeda 1-2 HT 0-0 Garliava Garliava LIT1
10.09.2022 Garliava Garliava 2-3 HT 1-0 Neptüna Klaipeda Neptüna Klaipeda LIT1
POST-MATCH Neptüna Klaipeda vs Garliava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neptüna Klaipeda squeezed past Garliava 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Neptüna Klaipeda as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Neptüna Klaipeda had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Neptüna Klaipeda and 1.33 for Garliava.

What was the final score of Neptüna Klaipeda vs Garliava?

Neptüna Klaipeda 1-0 Garliava in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neptüna Klaipeda vs Garliava?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neptüna Klaipeda win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Neptüna Klaipeda 47%, draw 29%, Garliava 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neptüna Klaipeda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Neptüna Klaipeda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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