Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Apr 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-2 HT 2-1
Pogon Szczecin
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.97
4-5 Goals
25%
2.72
6+ Goals
12%
6.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.56
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
10%
4.8
X/2
8%
7.58
X/X
10%
5.89
2/1
9%
21.05
2/2
16%
4.8
2/X
8%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.9pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Pogon Szczecin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
2.16/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.63
+24% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 75%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
21.8 Crosses 18.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.12 xG 2.22
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
263 Passes 333
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.04.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK
28.10.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
11.02.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
31.07.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
16.04.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
23.10.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-1 HT 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Pogon Szczecin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-2
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.35 xG 1.90
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
401 Passes 296
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
40 Box Touches 31
32 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok and Pogon Szczecin shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 56% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 44%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.35 to 1.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.83 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 42%, draw 26%, Pogon Szczecin 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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