El Nacional 3-2 Delfin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
60%
-11.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+9.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.0pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Delfin EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.69/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.78
+13% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 70%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.6
24.2 Crosses 11.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Delfin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.48 xG 1.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
229 Passes 213
71% Pass Accuracy 66%
20 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.10.2024 Delfin Delfin 1-1 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
30.09.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-2 HT 0-2 Delfin Delfin EKV1
01.05.2023 Delfin Delfin 2-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
04.08.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 1-0 Delfin Delfin EKVK
06.11.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 1-3 HT 0-0 Delfin Delfin EKV1
30.08.2020 Delfin Delfin 2-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
3-2
AWAY Delfin
0.61 xG 2.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
263 Passes 228
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Delfin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional squeezed past Delfin 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had El Nacional as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, El Nacional had 54% of the ball to Delfin's 46%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.61 to 2.78 — on chances, Delfin could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Delfin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for El Nacional and 1.83 for Delfin.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Delfin?

El Nacional 3-2 Delfin in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Delfin?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 48%, draw 26%, Delfin 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (El Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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