Harju Jalgpallikool 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.3pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harju Jalgpallikool EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 36%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
2.42/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.18
+57% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +35%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harju Jalgpallikool
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 HT 1-0 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
27.10.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
02.09.2023 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool 0-4 HT 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-1 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
28.04.2023 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool 1-2 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harju Jalgpallikool
0-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Harju Jalgpallikool vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus edged past Harju Jalgpallikool 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Harju Jalgpallikool at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Harju Jalgpallikool had 48% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 52%, shots finished 7-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Harju Jalgpallikool and 1.40 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Harju Jalgpallikool vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Harju Jalgpallikool 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harju Jalgpallikool vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Harju Jalgpallikool win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Harju Jalgpallikool 44%, draw 28%, Parnu JK Vaprus 29%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Harju Jalgpallikool) ✗ BTTS Yes
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