Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Paide Linnameeskond — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
12.23
Draw
18%
6.26
Away
62%
1.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.99
No
45%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
4%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
41%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
6%
+14.6pp
18%
Draw
13%
+4.7pp
61%
Away Win
81%
-19.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
46%
+8.9pp
45%
BTTS No
54%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond EU Bookmakers 85%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
0.69/2.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.86
+1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -29%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
222 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 26
4 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 5-0 HT 3-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
17.09.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 3-2 HT 3-1 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
21.07.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 3-1 HT 1-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
15.06.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-5 HT 2-2 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
04.05.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 2-0 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
27.09.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-1 HT 1-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
1-0
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond
30% Ball Possession 70%
7 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs Paide Linnameeskond
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tallinna Kalev squeezed past Paide Linnameeskond 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Paide Linnameeskond at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 30% of the ball to Paide Linnameeskond's 70%, shots finished 7-21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paide Linnameeskond led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 3.00 for Paide Linnameeskond.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs Paide Linnameeskond?

Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Paide Linnameeskond in the Estonia - Premium League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs Paide Linnameeskond?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paide Linnameeskond win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 20%, draw 18%, Paide Linnameeskond 61%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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