Tallinna Kalev 3-2 Paide Linnameeskond — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
7.18
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
55%
1.3
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.63
Over 2.5
50%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
11%
+10.0pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.7pp
55%
Away Win
72%
-17.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
34%
+15.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
66%
-15.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond EU Bookmakers 77%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
0.67/2.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/0.88
-14% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -16%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
220 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.07.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 3-1 HT 1-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
15.06.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-5 HT 2-2 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
04.05.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 2-0 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
27.09.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-1 HT 1-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
12.08.2023 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 1-1 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
24.05.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-1 HT 0-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
3-2
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond
27% Ball Possession 73%
9 Total Shots 27
4 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs Paide Linnameeskond
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tallinna Kalev edged past Paide Linnameeskond 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Paide Linnameeskond carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 27% of the ball to Paide Linnameeskond's 73%, shots finished 9-27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paide Linnameeskond led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 2.17 for Paide Linnameeskond.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs Paide Linnameeskond?

Tallinna Kalev 3-2 Paide Linnameeskond in the Estonia - Premium League on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs Paide Linnameeskond?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paide Linnameeskond win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 21%, draw 24%, Paide Linnameeskond 55%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond) ✗ BTTS No
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