Trans Narva 1-1 FC Flora Tallinn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
41%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
23%
+9.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
41%
Away Win
53%
-12.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn EU Bookmakers 57%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
0.83/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/0.91
-37% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +24%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 447 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.08.2024 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 3-1 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
18.05.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-3 HT 0-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
06.04.2024 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 4-3 HT 2-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
25.02.2024 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 2-2 HT 2-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva ESTSK
01.11.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-3 HT 0-2 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
23.07.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-4 HT 0-3 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trans Narva
1-1
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva and FC Flora Tallinn shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was FC Flora Tallinn at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Trans Narva had 41% of the ball to FC Flora Tallinn's 59%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Flora Tallinn led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Trans Narva and 2.67 for FC Flora Tallinn.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Trans Narva 1-1 FC Flora Tallinn in the Estonia - Premium League on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Flora Tallinn win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 33%, draw 26%, FC Flora Tallinn 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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