Trans Narva 1-3 FC Flora Tallinn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
38%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.23
Over 2.5
43%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
18%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.3pp
30%
Draw
23%
+7.1pp
38%
Away Win
53%
-15.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
41%
+16.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
59%
-16.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.1pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn EU Bookmakers 57%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.54/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.74
-61% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +55%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
236 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2024 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 4-3 HT 2-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
25.02.2024 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 2-2 HT 2-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva ESTSK
01.11.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-3 HT 0-2 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
23.07.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-4 HT 0-3 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
03.06.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-2 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva ESTK
23.05.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trans Narva
1-3
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Flora Tallinn saw off Trans Narva 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; FC Flora Tallinn found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Trans Narva had 43% of the ball to FC Flora Tallinn's 57%, shots finished 14-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Flora Tallinn led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Trans Narva and 2.00 for FC Flora Tallinn.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Trans Narva 1-3 FC Flora Tallinn in the Estonia - Premium League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Flora Tallinn win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 32%, draw 30%, FC Flora Tallinn 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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