Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 Harju Jalgpallikool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
36%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+10.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.2pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Harju Jalgpallikool EU Bookmakers 29%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.53/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/0.78
-1% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +106%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
362 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Harju Jalgpallikool
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.10.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
02.09.2023 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool 0-4 HT 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-1 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
28.04.2023 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool 1-2 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
1-1
AWAY Harju Jalgpallikool
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju Jalgpallikool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus and Harju Jalgpallikool shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (41% / 23% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 52% of the ball to Harju Jalgpallikool's 48%, shots finished 8-6.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 0.50 for Harju Jalgpallikool.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju Jalgpallikool?

Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 Harju Jalgpallikool in the Estonia - Premium League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju Jalgpallikool?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 41%, draw 23%, Harju Jalgpallikool 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EST1 More Estonia - Premium League
5 Apr 2025
12:30 Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Tammeka Tartu Analysis →
14:30 Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Analysis →
14:30 Nomme JK Kalju vs FC Flora Tallinn Analysis →
19:00 Tallinna Kalev vs FC Kuressaare Analysis →