Tallinna Kalev 4-1 FC Kuressaare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
44%
Away Win
40%
+3.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.08/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.26
-33% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
288 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
0W-2D-4L
AWAY FC Kuressaare
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
19.10.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-1 HT 1-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
09.08.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-3 HT 0-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
03.07.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-2 HT 2-2 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
29.03.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 3-0 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
01.10.2023 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-1 HT 1-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
08.07.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-3 HT 0-2 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
4-1
AWAY FC Kuressaare
61% Ball Possession 39%
27 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs FC Kuressaare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tallinna Kalev swept aside FC Kuressaare 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was FC Kuressaare at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 61% of the ball to FC Kuressaare's 39%, shots finished 27-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Kuressaare led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 2.33 for FC Kuressaare.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs FC Kuressaare?

Tallinna Kalev 4-1 FC Kuressaare in the Estonia - Premium League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs FC Kuressaare?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Kuressaare win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 31%, draw 25%, FC Kuressaare 44%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Kuressaare) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Kuressaare) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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