Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.64
Over
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.61
2-3
40%
1.76
4-5
18%
4.32
6+
8%
22.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.61 — our 34% vs market 31.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.19
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
14%
4.91
X/2
10%
6.78
X/X
14%
4.06
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
12%
5.25
2/X
8%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.5pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -13%
1.24/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.20
-18% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
19.0 Crosses 16.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.29 xG 0.97
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
275 Passes 577
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
30.03.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
24.06.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
07.05.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
19.04.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3-2 HT 1-2 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
05.04.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-0 HT 2-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.08 xG 1.46
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
566 Passes 361
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol and Albirex Niigata couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Kashiwa Reysol at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 59% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 41%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.08 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.00 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Albirex Niigata?

Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 42%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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