Progress / AFA Olaine vs Riga Mariners Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Progress / AFA Olaine v Riga Mariners — Team-Based Signals
Riga Mariners swept aside Progress / AFA Olaine 5-1 away from home. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Riga Mariners as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Riga Mariners?
Progress / AFA Olaine 1-5 Riga Mariners in the Latvia - 1st Division on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Riga Mariners?
Before kick-off our model rated an Riga Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 30%, draw 21%, Riga Mariners 49%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga Mariners), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.