Kampala City 1-0 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.32
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.6
No
54%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
71%
-8.7pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.2pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
34%
+11.2pp
54%
BTTS No
66%
-11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kampala City EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 12%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
2.81/0.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.51
+45% / +121% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +22%
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
440 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kampala City
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Mbarara City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 1
07.01.2025 Mbarara City Mbarara City 3-0 Kampala City Kampala City UGA
18.04.2024 Kampala City Kampala City 4-0 HT 2-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
13.02.2022 Mbarara City Mbarara City 1-1 HT 0-1 Kampala City Kampala City UGA
05.01.2022 Kampala City Kampala City 1-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kampala City
1-0
AWAY Mbarara City
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kampala City vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kampala City squeezed past Mbarara City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kampala City as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Kampala City had 67% of the ball to Mbarara City's 33%, shots finished 21-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Kampala City had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kampala City and 1.00 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of Kampala City vs Mbarara City?

Kampala City 1-0 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kampala City vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kampala City win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Kampala City 63%, draw 21%, Mbarara City 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kampala City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kampala City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
UGA More Uganda - Premier League
26 Apr 2025
16:00 SC Villa vs Kitara Analysis →
16:00 Wakiso Giants vs BUL Analysis →