Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 Mito HollyHock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.25
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 27% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
2.07/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.26
+18% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
497 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Mito HollyHock
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.11.2023 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 1-1 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
18.02.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-0 HT 0-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
2-1
AWAY Mito HollyHock
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Mito HollyHock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse edged past Mito HollyHock 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shimizu S-Pulse as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 46% of the ball to Mito HollyHock's 54%, shots finished 16-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 0.50 for Mito HollyHock.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Mito HollyHock?

Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 Mito HollyHock in the Japan - J2 League on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Mito HollyHock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 48%, draw 28%, Mito HollyHock 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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