Ben Guerdane 3-0 ES Metlaoui — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
21%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.19
No
62%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.27
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
14%
5.39
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.27 — our 41% vs market 37.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
21%
Away Win
22%
-0.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.9pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ben Guerdane EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 25%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
0.92/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.18/1.21
-15% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ben Guerdane
1W-3D-2L
AWAY ES Metlaoui
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 3-1 HT 0-0 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane TUN
22.01.2023 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 2-1 HT 1-0 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane TUN1
26.10.2022 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 2-0 HT 1-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1B
27.02.2021 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 0-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
06.12.2020 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 0-0 HT 0-0 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane TUN1
09.02.2020 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 2-2 HT 1-1 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ben Guerdane
3-0
AWAY ES Metlaoui
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ben Guerdane cruised past ES Metlaoui 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ben Guerdane as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Ben Guerdane had 48% of the ball to ES Metlaoui's 52%, shots finished 14-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ES Metlaoui led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ben Guerdane and 1.17 for ES Metlaoui.

What was the final score of Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?

Ben Guerdane 3-0 ES Metlaoui in the Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ben Guerdane win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ben Guerdane 50%, draw 29%, ES Metlaoui 21%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ben Guerdane), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ben Guerdane) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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