El Nacional 2-0 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 26 May 2025

📅26/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.5pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 30%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.66/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.37
-3% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
250 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
21.6 Crosses 14.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Emelec
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.65 xG 1.22
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
164 Passes 306
64% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.08.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
18.03.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
17.09.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
13.12.2020 Emelec Emelec 3-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
03.09.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
12.08.2019 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
2-0
AWAY Emelec
1.50 xG 0.66
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
331 Passes 147
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional beat Emelec 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had El Nacional as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, El Nacional had 66% of the ball to Emelec's 34%, shots finished 23-5, expected goals 1.50 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for El Nacional and 1.00 for Emelec.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Emelec?

El Nacional 2-0 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 42%, draw 26%, Emelec 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (El Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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