El Nacional vs Emelec Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
El Nacional v Emelec — Team-Based Signals
El Nacional vs Emelec Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Emelec
EKV1
3-0
HT 0-0
El Nacional
EKV1
2-1
HT 0-0
Emelec
EKV1
1-0
HT 0-0
Emelec
EKV1
El Nacional 2-0 Emelec — Actual Match Statistics
El Nacional beat Emelec 2-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had El Nacional as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, El Nacional had 66% of the ball to Emelec's 34%, shots finished 23-5, expected goals 1.50 to 0.66.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for El Nacional and 1.00 for Emelec.
What was the final score of El Nacional vs Emelec?
El Nacional 2-0 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Emelec?
Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 42%, draw 26%, Emelec 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.