Al Fateh 3-2 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 26 May 2025

📅26/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.91
Draw
26%
5.15
Away
52%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
12%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
23%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
14%
+8.4pp
26%
Draw
16%
+9.6pp
52%
Away Win
70%
-17.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-8.2pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Fateh EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 75%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.31/2.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.36/0.94
+57% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +18%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
256 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 85%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.7
16.2 Crosses 22.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Fateh
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Al Nassr
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.85 xG 2.88
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
296 Passes 462
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 40
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.01.2025 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-1 HT 1-0 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
17.02.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
25.08.2023 Al Fateh Al Fateh 0-5 HT 0-2 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
31.05.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-0 HT 1-0 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
03.02.2023 Al Fateh Al Fateh 2-2 HT 1-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
27.06.2022 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Fateh
3-2
AWAY Al Nassr
1.91 xG 2.52
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
240 Passes 397
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
33 Box Touches 36
21 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Fateh vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Fateh edged past Al Nassr 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Al Nassr at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Al Fateh had 41% of the ball to Al Nassr's 59%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.91 to 2.52 — the balance of chances actually favoured Al Nassr.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Al Fateh and 2.83 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al Fateh vs Al Nassr?

Al Fateh 3-2 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 26/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Fateh vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Al Fateh 22%, draw 26%, Al Nassr 52%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Nassr) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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