America Mineiro 1-1 Avai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 26 Jun 2024

📅26/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.67
Over 2.5
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.09
No
63%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.73
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.29
6+ Goals
9%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 38% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.0pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Avai EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.59/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.14
+2% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
22.4 Crosses 12.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Avai
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
327 Passes 366
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.08.2022 America Mineiro America Mineiro 3-1 HT 1-1 Avai Avai BR1
11.04.2022 Avai Avai 1-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
30.01.2021 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-1 HT 2-0 Avai Avai BR2
01.11.2020 Avai Avai 1-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
15.11.2014 America Mineiro America Mineiro 3-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
13.08.2014 Avai Avai 2-0 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
1-1
AWAY Avai
1.45 xG 0.85
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
285 Passes 361
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Avai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro and Avai shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was America Mineiro at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, America Mineiro had 46% of the ball to Avai's 54%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.45 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for America Mineiro and 1.00 for Avai.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Avai?

America Mineiro 1-1 Avai in the Brazil - Serie B on 26/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Avai?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 47%, draw 27%, Avai 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (America Mineiro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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