Ponte Preta 3-1 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 26 Jun 2024

Ponte Preta
3-1 HT 2-0
Ceara
📅26/06/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Ponte Preta vs Ceara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
34%
2.88
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.45
Over 2.5
37%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
17%
5.83
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.1pp
34%
Draw
31%
+2.9pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-3.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
65%
-2.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
35%
+2.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.3pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ponte Preta v Ceara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
1.29/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.62
-10% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.1 Crosses 17.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.3

Ponte Preta vs Ceara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Ceara
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.96 xG 0.60
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
232 Passes 408
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.08.2023 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
07.05.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
27.09.2014 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 3-1 HT 2-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
24.05.2014 Ceara Ceara 3-2 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
21.11.2009 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-2 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR2
15.08.2009 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2

Ponte Preta 3-1 Ceara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
3-1
AWAY Ceara
1.34 xG 1.06
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
145 Passes 279
63% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponte Preta beat Ceara 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 34% / 30%) promised a tight game; Ponte Preta found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 38% of the ball to Ceara's 62%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.34 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ceara led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ponte Preta and 1.33 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Ceara?

Ponte Preta 3-1 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie B on 26/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 36%, draw 34%, Ceara 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponte Preta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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