Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 26 Jul 2024

Atletico Paranaense
2-1 HT 1-0
Cerro Porteno
📅26/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Copa Sudamericana – 2024

Atletico Paranaense vs Cerro Porteno Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.68
Over
42%
1.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.31
No
56%
1.54
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
34%
2.72
2-3
38%
1.77
4-5
20%
4.3
6+
8%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.72 — our 34% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Atletico Paranaense v Cerro Porteno — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense The Market 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno The Market 17%
Great Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Bad
Great Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Bad
1.00 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 0.34
0.00 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.00
Bad Attackvs comparable teams Bad
– Defensevs comparable teams Great
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Atletico Paranaense vs Cerro Porteno Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.27 xG 1.16
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
285 Passes 178
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.07.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense CSA
27.05.2005 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-1 HT 2-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense LKU
20.05.2005 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 1-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno LKU

Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Cerro Porteno — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
2-1
AWAY Cerro Porteno
1.23 xG 0.12
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
248 Passes 272
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 7
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Atletico Paranaense vs Cerro Porteno
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Atletico Paranaense nicked a narrow win over Cerro Porteno 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The one blemish: under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) never looked like landing.

Under the surface, Atletico Paranaense had 49% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 51%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 1.23 to 0.12.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.33 for Cerro Porteno.

Atletico Paranaense vs Cerro Porteno Result & Final Score

Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Cerro Porteno in the Copa Sudamericana on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Atletico Paranaense vs Cerro Porteno Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 49%, draw 30%, Cerro Porteno 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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