Spartak Moskova 0-3 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 28% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.75
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.95
X/1
16%
3.84
X/2
6%
14.3
X/X
9%
5.91
2/1
10%
24.2
2/2
8%
12.7
2/X
8%
20.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
65%
-8.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+5.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.2pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 17%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.78/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.92
-11% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 71%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
19.0 Crosses 14.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.81 xG 1.53
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
272 Passes 207
66% Pass Accuracy 62%
33 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.05.2024 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 HT 1-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUSK
25.11.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-2 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
31.07.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
0-3
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
0.16 xG 2.61
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 24
0 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 6
169 Passes 392
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 27
7 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baltika Kaliningrad ran out comfortable winners over Spartak Moskova 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Spartak Moskova at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 34% of the ball to Baltika Kaliningrad's 66%, shots finished 3-24, expected goals 0.16 to 2.61.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Spartak Moskova and 0.67 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Spartak Moskova 0-3 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - Premier League on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 57%, draw 24%, Baltika Kaliningrad 19%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Spartak Moskova), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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