Dinamo Moscow 1-0 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.58 — our 28% vs market 17.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.1
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.49
X/2
8%
10.3
X/X
14%
5.88
2/1
11%
21.1
2/2
11%
7.59
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-10.0pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -16%
1.69/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.39
-1% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 72%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.3 Crosses 17.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Rostov
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.29 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
300 Passes 251
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2025 Rostov Rostov 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
10.02.2025 Rostov Rostov 4-0 HT 3-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow HAZ
01.11.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-1 HT 1-1 Rostov Rostov RUS
29.03.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-4 HT 0-3 Rostov Rostov RUS
03.09.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-2 HT 0-2 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
06.11.2022 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1-0
AWAY Rostov
0.68 xG 0.40
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
280 Passes 202
74% Pass Accuracy 65%
16 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow edged past Rostov 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Moscow as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 55% of the ball to Rostov's 45%, shots finished 6-4, expected goals 0.68 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 2.17 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Rostov?

Dinamo Moscow 1-0 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 47%, draw 27%, Rostov 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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