Internacional 1-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.51
Over 2.5
44%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
5.57
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.8
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.2
X/1
19%
4.04
X/2
10%
7.44
X/X
15%
3.69
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
9%
6.55
2/X
8%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.5pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Internacional EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +15%
1.56/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.42
+10% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
390 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.2 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Internacional
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.74 xG 1.27
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
343 Passes 432
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.11.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-2 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
02.07.2023 Internacional Internacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
06.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
05.09.2019 Internacional Internacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BRK
08.08.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Internacional Internacional BRK
12.05.2019 Internacional Internacional 3-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Internacional
1-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
2.66 xG 0.16
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 3
292 Passes 393
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 5
35 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Internacional vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Internacional nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Internacional as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Internacional had 44% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 56%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 2.66 to 0.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Internacional's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Internacional had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Internacional and 0.50 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Internacional vs Cruzeiro?

Internacional 1-0 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Internacional vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Internacional win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Internacional 45%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Internacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Internacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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