Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.83
6+ Goals
10%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.35
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.05
X/1
16%
3.74
X/2
12%
9.09
X/X
10%
4.15
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
10%
8.03
2/X
9%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.5pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.46/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.93
-2% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
21.8 Crosses 18.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.97 xG 0.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
357 Passes 289
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 1-3 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
27.10.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
13.06.2018 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
17.09.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
09.06.2017 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
25.09.2016 Vitoria Vitoria 2-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-1
AWAY Vitoria
0.65 xG 1.24
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
480 Passes 323
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo squeezed past Vitoria 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 58% of the ball to Vitoria's 42%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.65 to 1.24 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vitoria.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.67 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 44%, draw 29%, Vitoria 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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