Vitoria 1-3 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 May 2024

Vitoria
1-3 HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Vitoria vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.17
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.52
Over 2.5
37%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.34
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.18
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.75
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
11%
15.2
X/1
13%
6.82
X/2
13%
4.26
X/X
12%
3.78
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.99
2/X
9%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
28%
-0.7pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -17%
1.41/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.10
+27% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
19.8 Crosses 21.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Vitoria vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.76 xG 0.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
294 Passes 327
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
13.06.2018 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
17.09.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
09.06.2017 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
25.09.2016 Vitoria Vitoria 2-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
16.06.2016 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1

Vitoria 1-3 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
1-3
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.25 xG 2.96
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
217 Passes 520
78% Pass Accuracy 91%
7 Box Touches 38
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo got the better of Vitoria 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 27% / 32% / 40% — and on the day Sao Paulo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 33% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 67%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.25 to 2.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vitoria and 1.67 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?

Vitoria 1-3 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 27%, draw 32%, Sao Paulo 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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