Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Paranaense v Vasco da Gama — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Vasco da Gama
BR1
0-2
HT 0-0
Atletico Paranaense
BR1
3-0
HT 2-0
Vasco da Gama
BR1
1-0
HT 1-0
Atletico Paranaense
BR1
1-1
HT 0-0
Atletico Paranaense
BR1
4-1
HT 2-0
Vasco da Gama
BR1
Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Vasco da Gama — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense edged past Vasco da Gama 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.
On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 56% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 44%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 2.32 to 0.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Paranaense's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.50 for Vasco da Gama.
What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?
Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 47%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.