AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.35
No
39%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.08
2-3 Goals
34%
2.2
4-5 Goals
31%
2.45
6+ Goals
16%
4.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.67
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
4%
12.2
X/1
11%
5.35
X/2
6%
7.44
X/X
12%
6.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.25
2/2
16%
4.2
2/X
9%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.25 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.8pp
61%
BTTS Yes
70%
-8.9pp
39%
BTTS No
30%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.62/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.81
+11% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
10.8 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Dordrecht
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.76 xG 0.74
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
413 Passes 348
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.01.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 5-1 HT 3-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
22.09.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
21.04.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
05.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
01.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 1-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
12.04.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 HT 2-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
3-1
AWAY Dordrecht
1.83 xG 2.16
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
417 Passes 282
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 32
5 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II got the better of Dordrecht 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar II as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 58% of the ball to Dordrecht's 42%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.83 to 2.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 0.67 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs Dordrecht?

AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 46%, draw 25%, Dordrecht 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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