AZ Alkmaar II 5-1 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Jan 2024

📅22/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.41
No
42%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.67
2-3 Goals
37%
2.01
4-5 Goals
29%
2.57
6+ Goals
12%
5.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.7
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
10%
5.09
X/2
10%
7.08
X/X
10%
6.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.95
2/2
14%
4.25
2/X
10%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.95 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
67%
-9.0pp
42%
BTTS No
33%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.33/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.56
-15% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
11.5 Crosses 17.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Dordrecht
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.43 xG 0.86
52% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
405 Passes 351
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
21.04.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
05.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
01.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 1-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
12.04.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 HT 2-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
25.09.2020 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
5-1
AWAY Dordrecht
3.04 xG 0.98
44% Ball Possession 56%
23 Total Shots 13
14 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
268 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
42 Box Touches 28
4 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II cruised past Dordrecht 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had AZ Alkmaar II as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 44% of the ball to Dordrecht's 56%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 3.04 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 0.83 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs Dordrecht?

AZ Alkmaar II 5-1 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 41%, draw 28%, Dordrecht 31%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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