Ajax II 0-1 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Jan 2024

📅22/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.46
No
51%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
5.61
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
24%
2.57
6+ Goals
11%
6.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.61 — our 28% vs market 12.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.47
1/2
10%
20.15
1/X
13%
14.1
X/1
7%
9.68
X/2
15%
4.3
X/X
7%
6.07
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.11
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
24%
+5.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.5pp
46%
Away Win
53%
-7.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
64%
-15.5pp
51%
BTTS No
36%
+15.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 57%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.24/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.45/0.71
+23% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 78%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
10.6 Crosses 20.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Groningen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.01 xG 2.09
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 12
7 Corners 7
460 Passes 238
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2023 Groningen Groningen 4-1 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
0-1
AWAY Groningen
0.24 xG 0.45
68% Ball Possession 32%
6 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
550 Passes 196
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
8 Box Touches 23
6 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen edged past Ajax II 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ajax II had 68% of the ball to Groningen's 32%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 0.24 to 0.45.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs Groningen?

Ajax II 0-1 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 29%, draw 26%, Groningen 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ BTTS No
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