De Graafschap 4-2 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Jan 2024

📅22/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.74
Over 2.5
52%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.39
2-3 Goals
42%
2.1
4-5 Goals
24%
2.47
6+ Goals
10%
5.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.09
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
13%
4.44
X/2
12%
9.59
X/X
8%
6.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.95
2/2
10%
5.93
2/X
10%
13.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.95 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
55%
-11.2pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.1pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
33%
+15.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
67%
-15.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.6pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
1.68/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.41
-23% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
26.1 Crosses 12.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-1D-1L
AWAY PSV II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.47 xG 0.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
316 Passes 382
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-3 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
17.03.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.11.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-2 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
29.04.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
06.12.2021 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
19.04.2021 PSV II PSV II 0-2 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
4-2
AWAY PSV II
1.86 xG 1.12
40% Ball Possession 60%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
288 Passes 478
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap saw off PSV II 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, De Graafschap had 40% of the ball to PSV II's 60%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.86 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for De Graafschap and 1.33 for PSV II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs PSV II?

De Graafschap 4-2 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 44%, draw 26%, PSV II 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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