VVV-Venlo 2-1 ADO Den Haag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Jan 2024

VVV-Venlo
2-1 HT 2-1
ADO Den Haag
📅22/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

VVV-Venlo vs ADO Den Haag Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
21%
3.28
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.9
Over 2.5
58%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
26%
3.42
6+ Goals
13%
13.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.13
1/2
9%
25.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
11%
6.27
X/2
16%
5.2
X/X
10%
4.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
29.5
2/2
19%
3.17
2/X
6%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.8pp
21%
Draw
27%
-5.6pp
44%
Away Win
39%
+4.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
49%
-6.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
51%
+6.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.0pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VVV-Venlo v ADO Den Haag — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +7%
1.36/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.19
-6% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
329 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.4 Crosses 18.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

VVV-Venlo vs ADO Den Haag Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.55 xG 1.58
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
300 Passes 407
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
27.01.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
04.11.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-3 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
01.04.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-5 HT 0-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
14.11.2021 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
13.01.2021 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 1-4 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL

VVV-Venlo 2-1 ADO Den Haag — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
2-1
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.16 xG 2.34
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
246 Passes 391
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 38
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs ADO Den Haag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo edged past ADO Den Haag 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was ADO Den Haag at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 39% of the ball to ADO Den Haag's 61%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.16 to 2.34 — on chances, ADO Den Haag could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for VVV-Venlo and 2.00 for ADO Den Haag.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs ADO Den Haag?

VVV-Venlo 2-1 ADO Den Haag in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs ADO Den Haag?

Before kick-off our model rated an ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 35%, draw 21%, ADO Den Haag 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (ADO Den Haag) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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