Gremio 1-2 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.79
6+ Goals
11%
16.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.65
X/1
19%
3.82
X/2
9%
9.18
X/X
11%
4.94
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
13%
7.44
2/X
9%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.50/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.19
+7% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
18.5 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Criciuma
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.16 xG 0.94
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
390 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 14
29 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Criciuma Criciuma 0-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
31.08.2022 Criciuma Criciuma 2-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR2
20.05.2022 Gremio Gremio 0-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
22.07.2015 Criciuma Criciuma 0-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BRK
15.07.2015 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BRK
15.11.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 0-3 HT 0-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-2
AWAY Criciuma
1.67 xG 0.80
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
534 Passes 257
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Criciuma squeezed past Gremio 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gremio at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gremio had 65% of the ball to Criciuma's 35%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.67 to 0.80 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gremio.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gremio and 0.50 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Criciuma?

Gremio 1-2 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gremio 47%, draw 24%, Criciuma 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Gremio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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